Conformation Bias

Once people make their minds up about something, be it a player, manager or formation, then that opinion rarely ever changes. Sometimes even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. This wouldn't be too bad if there was any serious amount of deliberation about such things but minds tend to be made up within a short space of time. Even worse, some simply regurgitate what's being said by commentators and pundits alike.  If I were to be generous, this could be in the hope that its been well researched, but even so it's still dangerous to take someone else's opinion as fact.  This is how Zlatan Ibrahimovic can win several league titles, but isn't a good player until he scores against England in a friendly.

I'm as guilty as anyone. There are certain matters for which I am more than a little one eyed. Take yesterday's England-Italy game for example. In the immediate aftermath of that game, there was a mild disappointment but overall I felt a little smug. I'd been saying to anyone who would listen for the last two years that this is what Roy Hodgson specialises in. Whatever credit I'd given him for team and selection, all of it gone in the face of a premonition that was right by default. England didn't lose because they were cautious or negative. There were none of the trademarks there that I had warned about and yet the result was still the same. The cynical part of me thinks that he will use this as an excuse to be far more cautious against Uruguay, which given both their defence and the attacking talent at England's disposal at the minute would be insane. Still, that's nothing but negative foresight and I can't hammer him for that. There are plenty of actual reasons to dislike or not rate teams (or facets of them), we don't need to go around trying to invent more.